With Joe Burrow And A Too-familiar Cast, The Bengals’ Super Bowl Window Is Closing Fast

Here nan Bengals spell again. They person now had 5 cracks astatine building a title roster astir Joe Burrow since drafting him No 1 wide successful 2020, and person fallen short each 5 times. Entering twelvemonth six, it’s already starting to consciousness for illustration Burrow is this generation’s Dan Marino aliases Philip Rivers, an all-time awesome backmost fto down by nan franchise astir him.

After going 4-12 successful Burrow’s rookie season, Cincinnati made nan Super Bowl, lost, returned to nan AFC title crippled nan adjacent season, and past mislaid there. Burrow missed almost each of his 4th play pinch an injury, but put distant the champion play of his career statistically past twelvemonth … earlier nan Bengals surrendered it, uncovering caller measurement to springiness up adjacent leads early successful nan play and failing to scope nan playoffs contempt winning 5 consecutive games to adjacent it. In a convention wherever 44% of teams make nan postseason, it was almost impressively bad.

After nan improbable Super Bowl run, nan outlook successful Cincinnati was rosy. In Burrow, they had nan NFL’s astir valuable building block: a franchise backmost who could elevate mean players into difference-makers. Behind Burrow, they had Ja’Marr Chase, 1 of nan game’s champion receivers, a young excavation of violative playmakers and a heavy and talented defense. They moreover had nan league’s most prolific young kicker – and had oodles of headdress abstraction and draught picks to build connected their success.

But championship windows are finite. Rather than utilizing nan Super Bowl tally arsenic a launching pad, they alternatively committed countless team-building sins: wasting draught picks, misallocating free-agent dollars, continuing to time off Burrow susceptible down a porous violative line, and sticking pinch a group of coaches who person proven not to beryllium needle-movers.

This offseason, they doubled down connected mistakes, retaining nan halfway of past year’s roster and making only 1 important alteration to their coaching staff, and retaining caput coach Zac Taylor, who is now entering his sixth play alongside Burrow. No squad has won its first Super Bowl pinch nan aforesaid backmost starting for nan aforesaid coach for 5 years. The franchise had a chance to aggressively retool. Instead, it messed astir connected nan margins. Now it feels progressively for illustration nan model has unopen on this version of Burrow’s Bengals.

Maybe that’s worrying excessively much. Burrow is astatine nan apex of his powers. When he has been healthy, nan Bengals’ discourtesy has been a juggernaut; they could play blindfolded and decorativeness pinch 1 of nan league’s champion passing attacks; Chase and Tee Higgins, nan team’s move receiver duo, are obscurity adjacent 30; they person 1 of nan game’s champion pass-rushers successful Trey Hendrickson; and they’ve gone toe-to-toe pinch nan league’s champion complete aggregate postseasons.

That’s nan rotation from Cincinnati, anyway. But aggregate end-of-year losses tin warp a team’s self-perception. They deliberation they are person than they genuinely are – particularly successful nan AFC, wherever moreover getting to nan Super Bowl requires climbing complete teams quarterbacked by Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and CJ Stroud. This season, you tin adhd Bo Nix and nan Broncos, Trevor Lawrence and nan Jags, and Aaron Rodgers and nan Steelers’ 2020 All-Pro roster to that list.

Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins comprise 1 of nan champion wide receiver combos successful nan NFL. Photograph: Icon Sportswire/Getty Images

The Bengals will nary uncertainty constituent to their grounds successful one-score games past season, a notoriously unreliable measurement to judge a team’s record. Curb nan bone-headed mistakes, and a nine-win squad abruptly looks for illustration a section contender. The team’s under-the-hood figures painted them person to a fringe contender alternatively than a playoff afterthought, but those figures were propped up by 1 player: Burrow.

Everywhere else, things were a mess. The violative statement remained a sieve. The tally crippled was a non-factor. A once-ballyhooed defense fell disconnected a cliff. Even nan typical teams unit, erstwhile a calling card, fell to nan bottommost of nan league’s standings. There has been small to propose things will move astir this season, because truthful small has changed.

The Bengals look to beryllium taking nan rationalist’s position – that if they support hammering distant astatine nan door, yet they will break through. But nan Bengals are not nan only astir men of nan past half decade. They’re reasoning nan aforesaid point successful Buffalo … and Baltimore … and San Francisco. Compared to those different contenders, nan Bengals’ offseason renewal was paltry. They grounded to upgrade important positions and became bogged down, again, successful statement disputes pinch their ain players.

This year, proprietor Mike Brown managed a two-for-one. “They would alternatively triumph arguments than triumph games.” First-round prime Shemar Stewart said during his holdout. Despite settling Stewart’s contract, nan squad is still successful another standoff pinch Hendrickson, who has requested a waste and acquisition for nan 2nd successive offseason. Hendrickson, who led nan convention successful sacks past season, is nan team’s only difference-maker connected defense. Yet nan Bengals tin still not travel to position pinch nan edge-rusher connected a salary summation pinch only 1 twelvemonth near connected his deal.

Brown is nan benignant of billionaire who mightiness deliberation that prices astatine Dollar General are a spot steep. He refuses to make wholesale changes to his coaching staff, wary of paying retired existing contracts. He employs some nan smallest coaching unit and scouting section successful nan league. That whitethorn sound trivial, but it adds up. Run by an old-school proprietor pinch an outdated mindset, nan franchise has stuck, resolutely, to drafting players from assemblage football’s powerhouses, refusing to excavation nan crushed for slept-on gems successful football’s outskirts. Only 2 of nan team’s past 30 top-150 picks person played extracurricular assemblage football’s power-five (now power-four) conferences.

In fairness, that accuracy has led nan Bengals to drawstring together heavy rosters successful nan past, peculiarly during Marvin Lewis’ tenure arsenic caput coach. But nan team’s caller anemic draught grounds has near them lagging down different contenders – and they’ve missed opportunities to prime effect players, peculiarly on nan violative line, owed to that small-school bias.

Brown’s penny-pinching has exacerbated nan issues caused by their draught record. The Bengals routinely transportation nan lowest dormant money full successful nan league, a maneuver teams usage to push headdress burdens into nan early to amended nan roster now. The Bengals’ title window, pinch this core, is this season. If ever location was an offseason to put each nan chips in, this was it. Brown dipped his toed successful nan water, but balked astatine awesome surgery.

On nan coaching side, nan only important alteration was swapping retired protect coordinator Lou Anarumo for Al Golden, nan team’s erstwhile linebackers coach. They’re banking connected moving nan aforesaid squad backmost and a caller coach inspiring an about-face. There is talk of “internal growth,” a neat verbal tick that typically means: “we’re unwilling to walk money, we’re capped out, aliases we’re unwilling to admit our draught failures”.

The Bengals were fierce astir retaining Burrow’s buddies, though. After beating nan Cowboys past year, Burrow utilized his clip astatine nan podium to rumor a thinly cloaked threat to his beforehand office. Bring backmost my guys aliases else. Burrow, pointedly, did not mention Hendrickson. The Bengals acquiesced, signing Higgins to a four-year statement worthy $31m a twelvemonth and re-upping Chase connected a woody that made him nan highest-paid non-quarterback successful nan sport. The awesome was clear: they’re winning aliases going down connected Burrow’s arm. In a vacuum, those decisions made sense; some Chase and Higgins are fantabulous players. But successful context, nan deals mean that astir 35% of nan team’s net headdress this play is tied up successful nan backmost and 2 receivers, making it reliable to upgrade different areas of nan roster this offseason.

Trey Hendrickson has been Cincinnati’s astir important protect player. Photograph: Kareem Elgazzar/AP

A smart franchise would person said nary to Burrow. They would person fto Higgins walk, taken nan inevitable fire-storm connected nan chin, and reinforced their violative statement aliases improved their defense. The Bengals don’t need an electrical 2nd receiver to win. It’s a luxury. Burrow is bully capable to move so-so options into viable 2nd bananas. But Cincy spent nan offseason caving to Burrow’s demands. That’s awesome news for nan imagination crowd – not awesome for parade planners.

In summary: The Bengals’ offseason activity boiled down to re-upping family names, throwing Anarumo nether a bus, and hoping caller draught misfires would kickstart their careers nether caller leadership.

Some of that reasoning is sound. The Bengals’ defense was a disaster nether Anarumo past year. They couldn’t unreserved nan passer. They couldn’t cover. Anarumo’s top spot is creating distinctive, one-off gameplans that confuse opposing quarterbacks. But nan foundations of past year’s group were truthful shaky that nary magnitude of schematic voodoo could screen nan holes. The Bengals vanished successful nan bottommost 3rd successful nan convention successful unit rate, pass-rush win-rate, and protect tally efficiency. Strip Hendrickson retired of those metrics, and they autumn to nan bottommost of nan pile. Even nan Panthers – nan 2024 Panthers! – had a much effective four-man pass-rush than nan Bengals.

The gameplan is to offset nan pricey violative stars by getting young aliases inexpensive players connected defense. But nan execution has been bungled. Cincy coiled up fielding nan astir costly protect statement successful nan convention past season, pouring rate and draught picks into trying to technologist a four-man pass-rush that could complement Burrow’s bomb’s distant offense. To do that, they cheaped retired connected nan secondary. When that pass-rush fell connected its face, nan full defense was exposed. Outside Hendrickson, only 1 subordinate (BJ Hill) had much than 20 pressures past year. The Bears, Saints and Jets, each five-win teams, each had astatine slightest 4 players notch 20 pressures.

Other than ticking disconnected Henderson, nan Bengals person done small to amended their pass-rush for this year. They drafted Stewart successful nan first round, a developmental pass-rusher who missed nan early portion of training camp. Their only free-agent summation was TJ Slaton, an early-down tally stuffer. They allocated much resources to fixing their linebacking corps than addressing nan pass-rush needs.

And now, nan team’s title hopes again remainder connected nan correct enarthrosis of their quarterback. That’s nary bad thing. Burrow vanished past play 4th successful nan RBSDM composite, which measures nan worth of a play and really overmuch nan backmost tin beryllium deemed responsible for nan value. No azygous backmost was much valuable to their squad past season. Last season, however, proved that won’t beryllium enough. There isn’t different level for Burrow to ascend to. Even astatine his best, he couldn’t transportation a lackluster roster to January by himself.

This will nary uncertainty beryllium nan millionth consecutive twelvemonth nan Bengals preach diversifying nan offense, and nan millionth consecutive twelvemonth successful which they tally 1 of nan league’s 3 astir predictable offenses. Throughout Burrow’s time, they person struggled to efficiently tally nan shot aliases necktie nan tally crippled to play-action. When they put nan shot successful Burrow’s hands successful nan gun, they’re effective. Everything other is simply a risk. The Bengals were dormant past pinch 3.7 yards per play and 29th pinch a minus 18.1% DVOA from under-center formations successful 2024, according to FTN. Unless Burrow is playing constituent guard, nan Bengals struggle to move nan ball. In 2025, that’s nary measurement to build a sustainable offense.

The dream is that they tin compression 1 much play retired of that violative ideology while Golden patches something together connected defense. If Hendrickson is traded away, nan full scheme could cave successful earlier nan play moreover kicks disconnected (though location is dream that won’t happen, pinch Hendrickson reporting to training campy connected Wednesday moreover arsenic he says he won’t participate afloat until a woody is done)

“The [championship] model is my full career,” Burrow said past year. He is not wrong. But title windows are perilously short. Burrow whitethorn person much time, successful Cincinnati aliases elsewhere. But nan existent Bengals corps is connected to its past dance.