Where The Russia-ukraine Peace Talks Go From Here: From The Politics Desk

Welcome to nan online type of From nan Politics Desk, a newsletter that brings you nan NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and study from nan White House, Capitol Hill and nan run trail.

In today’s edition, Kristen Welker breaks down her interviews coming pinch Vice President JD Vance and cardinal officials successful Russia and Ukraine. Plus, I analyse really Democrats look a structural disadvantage successful nan nationalist redistricting conflict successful consequence to this week’s scholar question.

Sign up to person this newsletter successful your inbox each weekday here.

— Adam Wollner

Where nan Russia-Ukraine bid talks spell from here

By Kristen Welker

On a Friday filled pinch awesome developments, I said exclusively pinch Vice President JD Vance, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukraine’s first lawman overseas minister.

Through it all, 1 point struck me: really very acold distant from each different Vance and Lavrov seemed connected talks to extremity nan warfare successful Ukraine.

During my early-morning speech pinch Lavrov, nan apical Russian diplomat many times stressed that nan conditions aren’t yet correct for a gathering betwixt Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He suggested that it was Ukraine, not Russia, who was blocking advancement connected a bid deal, and many times chided Zelenskyy for prioritizing theatrics complete substance.

“How tin we meet pinch a personification who is pretending to beryllium a leader?” Lavrov said of Zelenskyy.

Kyslytsya struck a spot of a mediate ground. He praised nan Trump administration’s activity to get nan 2 countries to nan array and brushed speech immoderate of Moscow’s fiery rhetoric. But he accused Russia of trying to manipulate nan U.S. and said he sees “no signs location is simply a readiness connected Putin’s broadside to person meaningful conversations.”

As acold arsenic a cardinal mobility — nan statement complete territorial lines — Kyslytsya added that Ukraine’s “public is categorically against trading our onshore for peace,” and “when we said astir territorial issues, I deliberation President Zelenskyy made it very clear he’s fresh to beryllium down pinch President Putin and talk it, and nan opening of nan conversations connected nan territorial rumor is nan interaction statement that is presently there.”

Vance sported nan astir optimistic reside of nan 3 leaders.

Even arsenic he conceded that negotiations tin beryllium a roller coaster, Vance praised some Russia and Ukraine for making important concessions. He framed America’s domiciled arsenic 1 of a mediator, not trying to unit 1 broadside to return position they can’t tummy but 1 that tries to support nan doorway unfastened to good-faith negotiating. And he framed nan administration’s negotiating posture arsenic persistent, consenting to property connected moreover if they deed a ceramic wall.

I dream you’ll subordinate maine Sunday greeting connected “Meet nan Press” to watch much from our interviews pinch Vance and Lavrov.

More from nan Vance interview: The VP confirmed nan management is “in nan very early stages of an ongoing investigation” into erstwhile nationalist information advisor John Bolton, whose house was searched this morning by nan FBI. But Vance denied that nan investigation was retribution for Bolton’s disapproval of Trump. Read much →

✉️ Mailbag: Democrats’ redistricting disadvantage

Thanks to everyone who emailed us! This week’s mobility is connected nan nationalist redistricting battle:

“My mobility is if each nan reddish states and each nan bluish states travel nan redistricting solution, which statement comes retired connected top? Just really galore seats would beryllium up for grabs?”

Republicans person a clear advantage successful nan redistricting arms race simply because location are much states wherever they person afloat power. And successful nan immense mostly of those states, lawmakers are successful complaint of drafting nan maps, furthering nan GOP’s edge.

In total, Republicans person a trifecta — meaning they power nan governor’s agency and nan Legislature — successful 23 states, compared to 15 for Democrats, according to Ballotpedia.

In 18 of nan 23 GOP-led states, nan authorities Legislature has astatine slightest immoderate role, if not a starring one, successful drafting legislature boundaries. And crossed those 18 states, location are 44 districts represented by Democrats for Republicans to theoretically spell after. As for nan different 5 states, Republicans already person afloat power of their legislature delegations. Three are mini states pinch azygous at-large districts, and 2 person independent commissions that tie their lines.

Included successful nan group of 18 are nan states Republicans are presently targeting successful their mid-decade redistricting effort: Texas (13 Democratic-held seats), Florida (8), Indiana (2), and Missouri (2). Also included is Ohio (5), wherever lawmakers are required by rule to tie caller maps since nan past type was passed without bipartisan support.

As for nan Democrats, they person acold less targets arsenic they scramble to antagonistic nan GOP’s push up of nan 2026 midterm elections.

In nan 15 Democratic-controlled states, nan Legislature is progressive successful drafting legislature maps successful 9 of them. Five of them person independent aliases governmental commissions that grip nan lines, while nan sixth, Delaware, has conscionable 1 district.

Of nan group of nine, Democrats person afloat power of nan legislature delegation successful 5 of them (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Mexico and Rhode Island). And successful 2 of them (Maryland and Oregon) Republicans clasp conscionable 1 spot successful each.

That leaves Illinois and New York. Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker has near nan doorway unfastened to redrawing nan state’s map, but Democrats already correspond 14 of 17 districts.

And successful New York, wherever Republicans correspond 7 districts, nan process comes pinch important caveats. An independent committee initially draws nan maps, which lawmakers tin make changes to pinch supermajority support. Democratic legislators introduced a bill that would let them to get astir nan committee and nan authorities law request that nan maps only beryllium drawn each 10 years. But it would request to walk done 2 consecutive legislative sessions and beryllium approved by voters, meaning a caller representation wouldn’t spell into effect until nan 2028 predetermination astatine nan earliest.

This each explains why Democrats person turned their attraction to California, wherever Republicans clasp 9 seats but an independent committee typically controls nan redistricting process. Gov. Gavin Newsom signed authorities Thursday mounting up a typical predetermination this autumn successful which voters will beryllium asked to o.k. a caller legislature representation that could nett Democrats 5 much seats, perchance offsetting nan GOP’s moves successful Texas.

— Adam Wollner

Latest from Texas: Democratic Rep. Lloyd Doggett, nan longest-serving personnel of nan Texas legislature delegation, announced that he will discontinue if nan state’s caller representation isn’t rejected successful tribunal aft Republicans carved up his district. Read much →

That’s each From nan Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.

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