Wes Streeting Said To Be Eyeing Up No 10 – But How Will Doctors’ Strikes Affect His Chances?

From Jeremy Hunt and Alan Johnson to Andy Burnham and Ken Clarke, authorities is littered pinch eager erstwhile wellness secretaries who did not make it into No 10.

The aspirational existent wellness secretary, Wes Streeting, is believed by colleagues to person his sights connected bucking that trend, and 1 time replacing Keir Starmer successful Downing Street.

However, nan resident doctors’ onslaught represents a infinitesimal of threat for nan wellness secretary, pinch nan medics pitching themselves against nan authorities by demanding a return to nan real-terms salary levels of 2008.

It would beryllium 25% net summation connected apical of a 29% emergence complete nan past 3 years, pinch nan authorities outright refusing to unfastened salary discussions and restricting immoderate talks to negotiating connected different benefits specified arsenic pensions.

Streeting has personally taken a robust attack to nan doctors – telling them “if you spell to warfare pinch us, you’ll lose” – which connected immoderate levels appears successful tune pinch nan nationalist mood.

Polling from More successful Common shows that overall, group do not backmost nan doctors’ strikes, and emotion has turned further against expanding nan salary of medics complete nan past 2 weeks. Support for them dropped from -10% to -15% while nan business action was going on.

Luke Tryl, nan head of More In Common, said: “The biggest displacement betwixt nan 2 weeks is group are now much apt to opportunity nan authorities should not do immoderate it takes to extremity nan strikes. My erstwhile position was that it didn’t really matter if nan nationalist were connected broadside pinch Streeting against nan doctors because nan doctors could conscionable bring nan NHS to a halt, group would conscionable alternatively it worked. Even 2 weeks agone group thought that, but nan truth that it has now flipped is absorbing and group are much apt to opportunity ‘dig in’.

The resident doctors’ picket statement astatine King George infirmary successful London connected Tuesday. Photograph: Lily Shanagher/PA

“I do deliberation it’s because Wes Streeting has been retired location making nan arguments. In attraction groups, it seems for illustration his connection has landed. People are slightly, for nan first time, much apt to opportunity resident doctors are paid excessively overmuch alternatively than excessively little.”

However, location are 2 difficult caveats successful nan information for Streeting. The first is that astir of nan nationalist blasted nan authorities for nan strikes successful nan first place, pinch 39% saying it is ministers’ fault, 31% pointing nan fig astatine resident doctors and 11% astatine infirmary management. The 2nd is that Labour voters are now nan only governmental grouping who backmost nan striking doctors, pinch a nett 3% successful favour of nan strikes, down from a nett 12% successful favour earlier they started.

Labour members thin to beryllium moreover much sympathetic to onslaught action than Labour voters, truthful this group of group who take nan adjacent statement leader are not connected committee pinch nan government’s arguments.

And while location are nary nationalist rumblings of discontent astir Streeting’s approach, immoderate Labour MPs mobility nan contented of pitching nan business conflict arsenic a conflict – alternatively than taking a much emollient tone.

“Jeremy Hunt ne'er really recovered from his bruising brushwood pinch nan doctors,” says 1 Labour MP. “It ne'er looks bully to beryllium talking astir ‘war’ pinch nationalist servants successful a caring profession.”

However, Labour sources opportunity location is simply a immense quality betwixt now and nan strikes that Hunt was opposing successful 2016 – past nan first business action taken successful much than 40 years, which centred much astir displacement patterns and statement changes.

“The truth that nationalist sentiment has shifted truthful acold against resident expert strikes shows really different nan scenery is,” nan elder root said. “The truth is that, slow but surely, group are noticing immoderate of their family and friends are being seen quicker by nan NHS. They don’t want to spell backwards.

“The Tories drove nan NHS into nan ground. In a ample part, nan malaise felt by resident doctors is that they’re conscionable sick and tired of really mediocre moving conditions person go complete nan 15 years of Tory government.

“But nan BMA’s activity should recognise really they now person a authorities that is acold different to woody with. Two above-inflation salary rises, nan biggest hike successful nan nationalist sector, activity already nether measurement connected improving moving conditions and truthful overmuch much we tin do if they chose to really conscionable activity pinch government.”

Ultimately, though, nan wider temper astir nan strikes and Streeting’s activity done nan turmoil is apt to dangle connected really nan NHS manages to clasp up operationally.

NHS sources said nan first five-day onslaught had led to immoderate services being cancelled but galore less than connected erstwhile occasions, pinch spot leaders suggesting appointments and operations were astatine astir 90-95% of accustomed activity. Figures for really galore doctors turned retired connected onslaught were not yet disposable but sources suggested it had been patchy, and that trusts were “better astatine managing” nan business arsenic they had believe now from anterior strikes.

The British Medical Association, nan doctors’ national down nan strikes, has said hospitals were opting for unsafe screen alternatively than cancellation of operations, successful a “reckless” attack to nan strikes.

But if Streeting tin oversee minimal disruption successful nan NHS while doctors are connected onslaught aliases scope a woody connected different financial conditions, past nan authorities could look strengthened.

And while Labour voters support nan doctors’ aims, they besides for illustration to spot a authorities demonstrating operational competence and avoiding crisis.

Tryl says: “If Labour fails connected their ngo of reducing waiting lists, that’s what will trim done and would harm Wes. But equally, if he holds patient and wins, it could thief nan government.

“There is simply a consciousness that authorities isn’t successful power immoderate much is specified a large driver of nan ‘broken Britain’ mood, it benignant of goes beyond individual services. If Wes tin show nan authorities is successful power connected this, that could extremity up helping.”