Trump's Meeting With Putin Poses High Stakes For The Ukraine War — And His Legacy

WASHINGTON — An unkept committedness of Donald Trump’s presidency is that he’d extremity nan warfare betwixt Russia and Ukraine successful one swift negotiated masterstroke.

Trump made threats. He applied pressure. Still, nan bombs support falling, nan casualties proceed to heap up.

Now, Trump is betting that a face-to-face gathering pinch Russian President Vladimir Putin will output nan elusive breakthrough and possibly quell concerns among voters astir his handling of nan war.

The acme taking spot Friday connected friends turf, nan reddish authorities of Alaska, amounts to 1 of nan biggest gambits of Trump’s 2nd term. Hosting nan gathering raises expectations that he’ll extremity nan fighting. The president faces traps successful sitting down pinch Putin, who is well-versed successful nan territorial issues astatine stake, but he besides enjoys economical and subject leverage. Creating a durable bid that will sphere Ukraine’s independency will trial nan dealmaking skills that are Trump’s constituent of pride.

“If you rotation into nan gathering not prepped, you tin get jammed by Putin,” said Michael McFaul, who was U.S. ambassador to Russia successful nan Obama administration. “Summits are to execute an nonsubjective that advances American nationalist interests. They’re nan intends to end, and I sometimes consciousness that Trump feels nan gathering is an extremity successful itself.”

Inside nan Trump administration, a nationalist information charismatic acknowledged that forging a bid accord won’t beryllium easy. One of nan combatants won't beryllium astatine nan table: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has refused to relinquish territory to Russia that was illegally annexed.

“Whether aliases not there’s a breakthrough successful nan adjacent week aliases two, we’ll find out,” said nan Trump management official, speaking connected information of anonymity. “Ultimately, Putin and Zelenskyy person to beryllium capable to work together connected thing fundamentally. Third parties tin do thing they want, but these 2 men person to work together to things.”

Sitting successful a room pinch Putin, a canny negotiator successful his ain right, Trump whitethorn beryllium lured into endorsing a bid woody that carves up Ukraine, overseas argumentation experts caution.

"I interest that successful nan eagerness to look for illustration a peacemaker, President Trump will say, 'Yeah, that sounds for illustration a bully thought to me,'" McFaul said. "Putin will say, 'Donetsk [a metropolis successful eastbound Ukraine] was ever portion of Russia.' And Trump will say, 'You're correct astir that.'

"Putin is bully astatine those stories," McFaul continued. "He knows his history, and he tin beryllium engaging successful his narrative. That's what nan president needs to beryllium fresh for and his squad needs to get him fresh for."

Another anticipation is that Putin tries to stall nan president further, promising concessions he has nary volition of making successful hopes of consolidating gains connected nan battlefield, 1 erstwhile U.S. charismatic said.

Putin whitethorn effort to “divert President Trump from Trump’s extremity of stopping nan warfare and establishing a ceasefire by promising things later,” said William Taylor, who was complaint d’affaires astatine nan U.S. embassy successful Ukraine during Trump’s first term. “Then, Putin continues to conflict and continues to termination Ukrainians."

No matter what nan outcome, Putin comes distant pinch astatine slightest a symbolic victory: He's getting a large, agleam shape astatine a clip erstwhile he's an world pariah. Two years ago, nan International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin, accusing him of warfare crimes involving nan abduction of Ukrainian children. The warrant substantially constricted imaginable locations for nan 2 world leaders to meet.

“President Trump — conscionable by going to a gathering pinch Putin, who for astir of nan antiauthoritarian world is simply a rogue, imperialist dictator — is giving him legitimacy,” McFaul said.

The acme will inevitably induce comparisons to 1 held successful Helsinki successful 2018.

At a associated news convention pinch Putin that year, Trump came disconnected arsenic eager to forge a individual relationship aft years of icy bilateral relations betwixt nan U.S and Russia. Citing Putin’s denial of interfering successful nan 2016 statesmanlike race, Trump said astatine nan time: “I don’t spot immoderate logic why it would be” Russia that meddled successful his triumph complete Hillary Clinton that year. (He later claimed he had misspoken, affirming that he believed nan U.S. intelligence community’s conclusion that Russian meddling had occurred but added that location “could beryllium different group also” who interfered successful nan 2016 election).

This clip around, Trump is much seasoned and has grown impatient pinch Putin’s behaviour of nan war. He has suggested that his wife, Melania Trump, has influenced his position of Putin, reminding him of nan harm that Russia has inflicted connected Ukraine.

For his part, Putin is much diminished. As of this summer, Russian casualties were expected to deed 1 million. If he chooses, Trump could punish Russia for prolonging nan warfare by slapping secondary sanctions connected countries that acquisition Russian energy, a measurement he has threatened to take.

“Trump is successful a stronger position this clip than successful that first meeting,” Taylor said. “If President Trump goes into nan gathering pinch Putin and exercises nan political, subject and economical leverage that he’s got, location could beryllium a ceasefire.”

Trump heads into nan acme facing difficulties astatine home. His management has struggled to stem nan backlash from his guidelines complete nan Jeffrey Epstein case. Last week, Trump fired nan caput of nan Bureau of Labor Statistics pursuing a hiring study that showed anemic jobs growth.

A caller canvass from nan University of Massachusetts Amherst showed that Trump’s approval standing was 38% — a six-point driblet from April.

“He’s beautiful adjacent to nan theoretical level successful this polarized era for support ratings,” said Alexander Theodoridis, head of nan poll.

Among Trump voters, support for his handling of nan Russia-Ukraine warfare stood astatine 64% compared to different issues successful which they approved of his capacity by importantly higher margins, Theodoridis said. A full of 85% of Trump's 2024 voters approved his capacity connected migration issues; 78% favored his activity connected jobs; and 71% connected tariffs.

Statecraft is simply a proven measurement for presidents to amended their opinionated astatine home. A commander-in-chief enjoys acold much latitude successful shaping events successful nan overseas argumentation arena than erstwhile it comes to home affairs.

The summit, said Sen. Chris Coons, a Delaware Democrat who serves connected nan Foreign Relations Committee, “will alteration nan taxable successful a affirmative measurement for Trump if he really stands up to Putin and demands a conscionable bid for Ukraine.”

“That would beryllium a affirmative diversion,” Coons added. “But it would beryllium nan worst of some worlds if it [the summit] is intended some to beryllium a diversion from nan home attraction connected things for illustration tariffs and Epstein, and he fails to beryllium strong.”

An added inducement for Trump to extremity nan conflict could beryllium an grant that he seems to covet. His White House appears to beryllium methodically building a lawsuit that he has earned nan Nobel Peace Prize, drafting attraction to various efforts to trim tensions successful world hotspots.

January 31 is nan deadline for nominating candidates for nan 2026 bid prize. The Nobel action committee will denote nan victor successful October of that year.

On Friday, Trump held a ceremony successful nan White House to people a U.S.-brokered accord ending hostilities betwixt Armenia and Azerbaijan. Questioned by reporters, nan leaders of some countries touted Trump’s candidacy for a prize that 3 different American presidents person won. Barack Obama was nan astir caller victor successful 2009.

Still, nan bid woody betwixt Armenia and Azerbaijan would beryllium simply an amuse-bouche compared to ending nan conflict betwixt Ukraine and Russia, a nuclear-armed power.

"Putin is intelligibly successful a weaker position," Taylor said. "This penetration of Ukraine has turned retired to beryllium a disaster for him. And Trump has nan cards this time. He's sewage leverage, acquisition and confidence. He's eager to lick this problem and extremity nan war. He sees that Putin is nan problem. Putin is opinionated betwixt him and nan extremity of nan war."