The Age Of Guardiola Is Waning And The Game’s Guru Is Baffled By What Comes Next | Jonathan Wilson

The world is blasted, unfamiliar. Smoke swirls amid nan gloom. Foul odours belch from nan sulphurous earth. The scenery echoes to howls and grunts and screams. A awesome ray has gone retired and each that remains is disorder and fear. Everywhere coaches and managers, hunched nether their doubts, scuttle hither and thither, desperately seeking a way done nan wilderness.

From his very first play astatine Barcelona, Pep Guardiola’s measurement of playing shot has been dominant. The effectiveness of his accuracy was truthful evident and truthful pervasive that location is not an elite head now who has not successful immoderate measurement been influenced by his philosophy, moreover if they are not, arsenic galore are, overt disciples.

But arsenic nan near-universal acceptance of his methods fractures, arsenic different Premier League sides move distant from aliases accommodate Pepism towards approaches based connected counterattacking, group plays, players who tally pinch nan shot aliases a much nonstop style, nan consequence is simply a profound uncertainty. Belief recedes to time off a wasteland of possibility.

The situation is akin to England aft nan reliance connected W-M and nan winger was shattered by Hungary successful 1953, aliases 19th-century Europe aft technological discoveries had provoked nan situation of faith. If nary of nan erstwhile assumptions are true, if we cannot spot nan aged doctrine, really do we cognize what is right?

This is nan world that produced Charles Darwin and Friedrich Nietzsche and had Arthur Conan Doyle attending seances and believing successful fairies, conscionable arsenic managers successful nan 50s started trialling onslaught pairings and backmost fours and had nan Doncaster head Peter Doherty assigning players pinch random numbers to dispersed confusion. Nobody knows what is existent immoderate more, and nan consequence is simply a chaotic world of experimentation.

That consciousness of uncertainty whitethorn thief explicate why this was a summertime dominated by nan striker carousel, arsenic ample numbers of clubs sought a classical No 9, aliases astatine slightest nan modern mentation of that: a large subordinate pinch pace, technically accomplished and tin of moving nan channels, a complete centre-forward successful nan mould of Didier Drogba aliases Hernán Crespo. As religion goes, what could beryllium much comforting than reducing shot to its astir basal act, scoring goals? Never mind nan process: a striker who tin guarantee 20 goals a play assures a broadside of astatine slightest immoderate measurement of achievement.

Football has ne'er known a infinitesimal rather for illustration this before. Pepism is astir apt nan astir hegemonic style nan world has known. It helped that he arrived conscionable arsenic inheritance conditions were cleanable for his style, arsenic transportation exertion improved to nan constituent that first touches could beryllium taken almost for granted, nan liberalisation of nan offside rule accrued nan effective playing area and a crackdown connected intimidatory tackling allowed technically talented but diminutive midfielders to flourish.

The crippled was ripe for Guardiola-style innovation, but his ideas dispersed arsenic they did because shot has ne'er been arsenic globalised, ne'er been arsenic scrutinised. There has ne'er been specified an agglomeration of nan world’s champion players astatine specified a mini array of clubs, nor specified attraction connected them.

Complete centre-forwards for illustration Didier Drogba are backmost successful vogue. Photograph: Scott Heavey/Action Images/Reuters

For 15 years aliases so, nan world has accepted this is nan astir effective measurement to play. Even nan hard-pressing of nan German schoolhouse and nan Guardiola style, which could astatine 1 constituent reasonably beryllium sounded arsenic a measurement of playing based connected regaining possession against a style that prioritised its retention, came successful nan extremity to an accommodation.

Which raises 1 of nan paradoxes of Pepism, which is that it is truthful divers arsenic to beryllium almost indefinable. Certain fundamentals tin beryllium identified: pressing, a precocious line, nan usage of possession for control, a suspicion of dribbling and long-range shots, a penchant for nan debased cut-back complete nan booming transverse from deep, and a paranoia related to nan tallness of nan statement astir nan threat of being countered against.

But Guardiola is not a dogmatist successful nan measurement galore of his followers are: he is flexible, everlastingly innovating and tinkering. He likes a 3-2-5 protect building retired of possession, but has achieved that successful various ways complete his career: 1 full-back overlaps, nan different covers across; some full-backs push up, a cardinal midfielder drops betwixt nan cardinal defenders; a full-back inverts and tucks into midfield arsenic nan different covers across; nan backmost 4 comprises cardinal defenders but John Stones steps into midfield to create nan 2nd holder.

Two existent Premier League managers worked arsenic Guardiola’s assistants, Enzo Maresca and Mikel Arteta. Although some person developed on their ain paths, they connection a snapshot of wherever Pepism was astatine nan infinitesimal they group retired alone: Maresca comes from nan days of power done possession; Arteta from nan era of 4 cardinal defenders crossed nan back. A tactical appraisal of nan elite is for illustration a vertical tasting of Pepism.

Mikel Arteta’s usage of 4 cardinal defenders was picked up from Pep Guardiola. Photograph: Phil Noble/Reuters

Although Guardiola had antecedently worked pinch Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Robert Lewandowski, nan signing of Erling Haaland, a axenic striker who shows small liking successful aliases capacity for engaging pinch nan midfield, represents nan top rupture. The imaginative hostility betwixt his request for directness and Guardiola’s cautious instincts brought nan treble but whitethorn underlie nan coming problems.

The ostracism of Ederson and signings of James Trafford and Gianluigi Donnarumma, neither of whom has nan sweeping capabilities Guardiola has demanded of his goalkeepers, consciousness for illustration different measurement towards orthodoxy (or, depending who really authorised nan signings, possibly towards City’s post-Guardiola future). Just arsenic authorities undergraduates person go utilized to answering nan question: “Was Karl Marx a Marxist?” it whitethorn soon look reasonable to inquire whether Guardiola is immoderate longer a Pepist.

But past Guardiola – paradoxically and successful evident opposition to his opposing head connected Sunday, nan Manchester United manager, Ruben Amorim – has ever been a pragmatist. He has ever been consenting to tweak and adapt; evolution, arguably, is itself basal to Pepism, which is possibly to reason that Pepism is yet truthful mutable arsenic to lucifer Peronism, a immense array of competing ideas whose 1 defining rule is their root successful 1 man.

And for now, aft City’s 2 defeats successful their first 3 convention games, that 1 man seems conscionable arsenic mislaid successful nan wilderness, conscionable arsenic baffled arsenic to which way to return next, arsenic everyone else.