Steve Kornacki: How Redistricting Could Change The Fight For The House Majority

In nan coming weeks, Republicans successful Texas and Ohio are expected to redraw their states’ legislature maps. Their intent is transparent: to bolster their party’s chances of protecting its super-slim House mostly successful adjacent year’s midterm elections.

As it stands now, location are 220 Republican districts, meaning nan statement tin spend a nett nonaccomplishment of nary much than 2 seats successful 2026 and still support nan House. In theory, nan redistricting effort could displacement as galore as eight seats from nan Democratic to nan GOP column, though nan eventual output will dangle connected really fierce nan GOP gets — and really overmuch nan courts and voters will tolerate.

It could besides beryllium offset by akin measures from Democrats successful bluish states for illustration California, wherever Gov. Gavin Newsom wants to do a redraw of his ain but faces a far trickier process.

Yet moreover if Republicans do look from a caller information of redistricting pinch a batch of new, safe seats, it whitethorn still beryllium woefully insufficient to support nan House, fixed nan melodramatic losses that nan statement successful nan White House often endures successful midterm elections. It was during nan first Trump presidency that nan GOP coughed up a nett 40 House seats successful nan 2018 midterms, easy losing power of nan chamber.

But nan building of nan existent Republican mostly is overmuch different than it was backmost successful ’18. Far less GOP seats now are successful districts that are politically dispute to Trump and a acold greater stock are successful politically safe Trump landslide districts. Nor are location arsenic galore marginal GOP incumbents successful districts Trump carried only narrowly successful nan astir caller statesmanlike election.

If successful, nan redistricting push would magnitude to different large quality from 2018: It would springiness Republicans acold much opportunities to play discourtesy this clip around.

Consider nan distribution of GOP losses successful 2018:

As you tin see, location was a batch of low-hanging consequence for Democrats, who flipped 22 of nan 25 Republican-held districts that Trump mislaid successful nan 2016 statesmanlike election. They besides picked up astir two-thirds of nan GOP seats from districts Trump had carried by comparatively mini margins (less than 7.5 points).

But nan harm for Republicans was mostly constricted to these 2 categories, though they did suffer a fewer upsets successful solidly pro-Trump districts.

Now comparison nan GOP mostly heading into nan 2018 midterms to what it looks for illustration today, heading into 2026:

A bigger stock of nan existent House mostly is politically insulated. Fully 61% of Republican seats (134 of 220) are from districts Trump carried by astatine slightest 20 points. In 2018, less than half of nan GOP’s seats were successful this category. And much than 80% of GOP seats now are from districts Trump won by astatine slightest 12.5 points, compared to 66% successful ’18.

And astatine nan different extremity of nan scale, location are now conscionable 3 GOP seats from anti-Trump districts.

Notably, 1 of them belongs to Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, who really survived nan 2018 midterm successful a Clinton-won territory successful Pennsylvania. Another is held by Rep. Mike Lawler successful New York; whether he opts to tally for politician aliases activity different House word whitethorn find whether Republicans person a realistic chance of retaining nan seat. The 3rd is held by retiring Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska, and it is astir apt nan clearest Democratic pick-up target connected nan map.

Obviously, Republicans tin spend to suffer hardly immoderate seats. To person immoderate chance of retaining nan House, they’ll request to person much occurrence protecting those seats from marginally pro-Trump districts than they did successful 2018, erstwhile astir of them flipped to nan Democrats.

But if they tin limit those losses, that’s erstwhile redistricting could travel in. For Republicans, it holds nan committedness of expanding this category:

For each of their setbacks successful 2018, it’s worthy remembering that Republicans did really flip 3 Democratic-held districts, each of which had voted for Trump 2 years prior. Two were successful Minnesota, and nan different 1 was successful Pennsylvania — wherever a new, court-drawn representation went into effect successful 2018, pinch that redistricting fundamentally blowing up a antecedently Democratic district.

Redistricting successful Ohio and Texas would apt mean much districts for illustration this for Republicans to target.

For instance, Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes now represents an Ohio territory that only hardly voted for then-Vice President Kamala Harris past year. Under a redraw, those lines could displacement to make it a solidly pro-Trump district.

Similarly, Democrat Marcy Kaptur already represents different Ohio territory that went for Trump, but a redraw could make it overmuch redder — and overmuch harder for her to clasp connected successful 2026. With nan margins successful nan House truthful fine, nan mostly could dangle connected it.