New Congressional Maps Will Test The Latino Vote In The 2026 Election

As a activity of mid-decade redistricting sweeps nan country, politicians connected some sides of nan aisle are being uncharacteristically blunt astir their endgame: governmental power.

With only somewhat much subtlety, Texas Republicans and California Democrats are besides signaling wherever they deliberation trends successful nan Latino ballot are going — and really they deliberation those voters will thief them summation powerfulness successful 2026 and beyond.

Latinos’ large displacement toward Republicans has been 1 of nan awesome changes successful American authorities during nan Trump era. Now, nan durability of those GOP gains — and whether Vice President Kamala Harris’ debased numbers successful cardinal plaything states and plaything districts represents a low-water people for Democrats aliases a waypoint connected nan measurement to worse trends successful nan early — are cardinal questions that will find really recently drawn legislature districts execute for nan parties drafting them.

“Those maps were drawn assuming that nan 2024 and to a lesser extent, nan 2020 results, will supply nan strongest denotation of what’s going to hap successful 2026 for some parties,” said Erin Covey, a nonpartisan predetermination expert who is nan House editor astatine The Cook Political Report pinch Amy Walter.

“Republicans are banking connected their gains pinch Hispanic voters that they’ve made successful southbound Texas particularly, not conscionable successful 2024 but complete nan past 8 years. … That’s benignant of nan full ballgame for them if they want to support nan House,” Covey added.

Texas Republicans stake large connected Hispanic voters

Republicans’ optimism astir building connected their betterment pinch Hispanics is simply a clear done statement successful their Texas legislature representation redraw.

As nan mapmakers sought to amended GOP chances of dethroning Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar, a reliable longtime force contempt a national bribery indictment, they pushed his territory boundaries farther east, creating a territory that Donald Trump would person won by much than 10 percent points successful 2024 (Trump won Cuellar’s aged territory by much than 7 points). In doing so, they turned a 73% Hispanic territory into a 91% Hispanic one, a clear stake that governmental upheaval successful nan Rio Grande Valley, peculiarly among Hispanics moving toward Republicans, will continue.

On nan different broadside of southbound Texas, nan 34th District, represented by Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, sewage little Hispanic, but its putative 2024 separator for Trump besides grew.

The much melodramatic changes happened successful Democratic-held districts successful Texas’ awesome metro areas. The caller 9th District, now a ruby-red territory successful eastbound Houston and nan surrounding area, is 62% Hispanic, and Trump would person won nan spot by almost 20 points past fall.

And past there’s nan caller 35th District eastbound of San Antonio, an area that’s 57% Hispanic that Trump would person won by 10 points successful 2024.

Throughout nan redistricting process, Republican lawmakers many times stressed their sole lens for redrawing nan maps was a governmental 1 — pushing backmost connected Democratic accusations, and lawsuits from extracurricular groups, alleging nan redraw amounts to an unconstitutional race-based gerrymander. But they highlighted that astir of nan districts wherever they dream make gains person Hispanic majorities.

“The underlying extremity is this scheme is straightforward: amended Republican governmental performance,” GOP authorities Rep. Todd Hunter said earlier this period during statement connected nan bill, adding that nan superior changes to nan state’s legislature representation are “focused connected only 5 districts for partisan purposes.”

He went connected to statement that “four of nan 5 caller districts are majority-minority Hispanic” by national voting-age population, earlier adding: “Each of these recently drawn districts now inclination Republican successful governmental performance. While there’s nary guarantee of an electorate success, Republicans will now person an opportunity to perchance triumph these districts,” he added.

Partially because of rightward-trending Latino voters, nary Republican incumbent successful Texas will correspond a territory that Trump won by little than a double-digit margin, and each 5 imaginable Republican pickups athletics that aforesaid floor.

But immoderate of these districts were much competitory successful erstwhile elections — peculiarly nan Democratic-held 28th and 34th districts, arsenic good arsenic nan imaginable Republican targets successful nan 9th and 35th districts.

Brendan Steinhauser, a erstwhile run head for Republican U.S. Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, told NBC News nan “key element” up of 2026 is whether Republicans not named Trump tin replicate his capacity pinch Hispanics.

“It’s a very plausible script that it is durable, but if not, we mightiness person immoderate competitory seats to defend,” he said.

Steinhauser went connected to statement that Cornyn performed good pinch Hispanics connected his measurement to re-election successful 2014, and he said location are nuanced differences among Latino voters — for illustration betwixt southbound Texas and nan remainder of nan state, betwixt antheral and female voters, and differences based connected acquisition and income levels. He added that his “gut” tells him that Trump’s Hispanic ballot stock will apt beryllium a “high-water mark” for Republicans adjacent cycle, “and we’ll beryllium moving to get arsenic adjacent arsenic we tin to that.”

But partisans disagree, to varying degrees, astir what lessons to tie from past elections, peculiarly fixed that these Republican-leaning seats were much competitory erstwhile Democrat Beto O’Rourke narrowly mislaid his Senate bid to GOP Sen. Ted Cruz successful 2018.

Steinhauser said he believed those margins had “more to do pinch Beto O’Rourke than anything,” and that nan Democrat “captured lightning successful a bottle.”

Texas Democrats told NBC News that they’ve seen ample grounds successful caller cycles of Democrats outperforming nan statesmanlike ballot.

Manny Garcia, a Democratic strategist who utilized to beryllium nan authorities party’s executive director, panned nan territory changes arsenic a group gerrymander that drowns retired lower-turnout Hispanic areas pinch higher-turnout achromatic areas (echoing nan arguments made against nan redraw successful court). He added that if Republicans really thought nan moves among Hispanics were durable and widespread, they would person made different choices astir municipality areas.

“When you excavation deeper into what is going on, it is nan Republican Party hoping and convincing itself that nan unsocial phenomena that happened pinch Donald Trump and a sliver of nan Latino population, peculiarly agrarian Latino males, that that narration will transportation connected downballot and for galore years to come,” he said. “Republicans are making a bad bet.”

Success of nan maps could remainder connected whether Democrats already bottomed out

In California, Democrats drew a representation designed to antagonistic Texas by creating up to 5 House pickups for their party.

But Covey noted they started retired from a different constituent than Texas Republicans — California had acold much perchance competitory seats successful its map, which was drawn by an independent commission, than Texas’ erstwhile map, drawn by Republican lawmakers successful 2021 and designed to statement up incumbent Republicans alternatively of maximizing imaginable GOP gains.

Covey added that while Democrats “could person drawn a much fierce representation that gave them arsenic galore arsenic 7 pickup opportunities” because of really spread-out California Republicans are geographically, nan representation drawers besides took steps to thief insulate a fistful of Democratic incumbents who could person been susceptible astatine immoderate constituent successful nan adjacent future, depending connected nan nationalist mood.

The redraws travel aft an predetermination that saw Trump not only expanse nan cardinal plaything states but summation crushed compared to his 2020 margins successful each azygous state, moreover when, successful immoderate cases, awesome Democratic candidates down nan ballot outperformed nan apical of their ticket.

The move raises an important mobility erstwhile considering nan caller maps: Did nationalist Democrats scope a debased successful 2024, particularly considering nan humanities inclination of nan out-of-power statement gaining crushed successful nan consequent midterm? Or did 2024 and the important elector realignment that powered it awesome that nan aged assumptions are nary longer connected nan table?

Paul Mitchell, a information advisor whose firm, Redistricting Partners, helped to make California Democrats’ caller projected maps, told NBC News that he believes Republicans readying their governmental futures astir nan “artificial, precocious number” of 2024 could beryllium a “real trap,” moreover arsenic he added his statement was “cognizant” of nan trends to make judge it wasn’t leaving seats unexpectedly vulnerable.

“Let’s opportunity this inclination is permanent, we didn’t want to get bitten by it, truthful we were being overly cautious. They didn’t look for illustration they were worried astir that,” he added.

Rob Pyers, nan investigation head astatine nan California Target Book, told NBC News he believed that Democrats didn’t return a much “maximalist approach” little retired of strategy and much because they feared moving afoul of law concerns, aft nan state’s independent committee drew nan maps successful 2021 to adhd much majority-Latino districts. And while immoderate key, perchance susceptible Democratic seats were shored up successful nan redraw, he noted that immoderate “previously safe Democratic districts [got] overmuch much competitive.”

“There’s an evident bet that nan rightward inclination successful a number of these districts will halt,” he said.

But he besides raised different imaginable wrinkle, 1 that makes California’s redraw little straightforward than Texas’: nan state’s top-two superior system, wherever candidates tally successful a broad superior and nan apical 2 candidates move connected to a wide election, sloppy of party.

“When Republicans dress up 20%-30% of nan vote, nan chances of a crowded Democratic section producing an R-versus-R runoff is remote. When Republicans dress up 40% aliases much of nan vote, past things tin get perilous successful a hurry,” he said.

“Factor successful aggregate younger progressives moving successful nan aforesaid district, each looking to return retired entrenched geriatric members,” he added, “it’s not difficult to image things going sideways.”