The first insubstantial from a multi-year objective investigation study has been published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases: Dynamics of Endemic Virus Re-emergence successful Children successful nan USA Following nan COVID-19 Pandemic (2022-2023): A Longitudinal Immunoepidemiologic Surveillance Study and demonstrates really nan attack tin amended modeling to amended foretell early outbreaks.
The insubstantial shares findings from a multicenter objective investigation study, 1 of galore studies that are portion of nan precocious launched PREMISE (Pandemic Response Repository done Microbial and Immune Surveillance and Epidemiology) program, led by Dr. Daniel Douek astatine nan National Institutes of Health's (NIH) Vaccine Research Center (VRC). Data collected during nan first twelvemonth of nan PREMISE study, 2022-2023, shows for nan first clip really non-pharmaceutical interventions specified arsenic masking and distancing targeted towards SARS-CoV-2 during nan pandemic besides decreased circulation rates of and organization immunity to communal respiratory pathogens successful children. The study provides caller evidence-based penetration into what was driving nan ample post-pandemic rebound successful these diseases and enables much meticulous predictions for nan future.
This study is simply a business betwixt PREMISE and objective investigation sites astatine world institutions led by main interrogator Kevin Messacar, MD, PhD, infectious illness master astatine Children's Hospital Colorado, astatine nan cardinal tract astatine University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus and Children's Hospital Colorado pinch further study sites astatine University of North Carolina, Weill Cornell Medicine and nan University of Alabama astatine Birmingham.
The PREMISE study conducted immunologic surveillance connected children younger than 10 years old, by enrolling them and pursuing them for complete a year. Through repetition humor sampling, nan squad could find what children astatine varying young ages had immunity to and what they were susceptible to. Through respiratory sampling during illness, researchers were capable to find what infections they experienced. The information showed that astir younger children lacked immunity to galore normal respiratory viruses during nan pandemic, suggesting they had not been exposed, arsenic they typically would have, owed to prevention measures successful place. Following nan lifting of pandemic measures, nan level of immunity roseate crossed each pathogens studied, reflective of nan unprecedented wide resurgence of these viruses successful children aft nan extremity of nan pandemic.
While astir investigation studies target a circumstantial disease, samples from PREMISE were tested for galore communal and emerging respiratory viruses, including RSV, influenza and enterovirus D68 (EV-D68), which tin origin nan polio-like illness, acute flaccid myelitis. The information allowed experts to recreate past circulation patterns and exemplary predictions for early outbreaks pinch greater accuracy and precision. They showed that PREMISE information from 2022-23 could beryllium utilized to accurately foretell nan consequent activity of illness of nan emerging pathogen EV-D68 that occurred successful 2024.
Four cohorts of almost 1,000 children person provided an invaluable slope of samples and data. These are being utilized to create 'on nan shelf' aesculapian countermeasures, specified arsenic antibody treatments and vaccines, for pathogens of interest. Instead of starting from scratch, this study gives america a caput commencement to understand, foretell and hole for early pandemics."
Hai Nguyen-Tran, MD, lead author, infectious illness master astatine Children's Hospital Colorado and adjunct professor astatine University of Colorado School of Medicine
Samples and information from nan PREMISE study will besides beryllium utilized to study which parts of viruses nan quality immune strategy attacks to go immune, truthful teams tin amended creation caller antibody treatments and effective vaccines to mimic this response.
"In nan future, this type of immune surveillance tin beryllium utilized to amended understand nan effect of nationalist interventions connected organization immunity and early waves of disease," said Dr. Messacar, who is besides a professor astatine University of Colorado School of Medicine. "PREMISE is simply a awesome illustration of a successful investigation business betwixt NIH scientists and objective researchers successful academia, starring to actual deliverables specified arsenic vaccine candidates and monoclonal antibodies that tin straight effect nationalist health."
This study is afloat funded by a subcontract pinch Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research (FNLCR), presently operated by Leidos Biomedical Research, Inc. done Agreement 21X192QT1. FNLCR backing was provided by nan NIH Vaccine Research Center wrong NIAID. The full task backing is $7.98 cardinal complete 5 years. No financing for this task was supplied by nongovernmental sources.
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Journal reference:
Nguyen-Tran, H., et al. (2025). Dynamics of endemic microorganism re-emergence successful children successful nan USA pursuing nan COVID-19 pandemic (2022–23): a prospective, multicentre, longitudinal, immunoepidemiological surveillance study. The Lancet Infectious Diseases. doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(25)00349-4.