How Trump Is Shaping The Midterm Map: From The Politics Desk

Welcome to nan online type of From nan Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you nan NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and study from nan White House, Capitol Hill and nan run trail.

In today’s edition, we return a look astatine really President Donald Trump is steering GOP lawmakers distant from statewide bids pinch an oculus connected protecting nan House majority. Plus, Andrea Mitchell breaks down nan latest section successful nan Trump administration’s attempts to displacement attraction distant from nan Epstein files.

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— Adam Wollner

How Trump is shaping nan midterm map

A trio of Republican members of Congress person successful caller days declined to activity a higher office, developments that could not only thief their statement debar messy statewide primaries, but statement up battleground districts arsenic they purpose to protect their vulnerable House mostly successful 2026.

And successful each 3 cases, President Donald Trump played a cardinal role.

New York: After toying pinch a gubernatorial bid for months, GOP Rep. Mike Lawler announced coming he would not challenge New York Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul and alternatively tally for re-election.

The determination comes arsenic a alleviation to Republicans, who feared Lawler’s Hudson Valley territory — 1 of 3 they correspond that Kamala Harris won successful nan 2024 predetermination — would beryllium moreover much astatine consequence without an incumbent connected nan ballot. Trump and GOP leaders had been trying to steer Lawler away from nan governor’s race, pinch nan president moreover endorsing him for re-election successful May earlier he made up his mind.

Lawler said connected “Meet nan Press NOW“ that he met pinch Trump, who “offered his position that he believes nan correct point to do is to tally for re-election.”

“But yet it was my decision,” Lawler added.

Lawler’s move could besides clear nan measurement for Rep. Elise Stefanik, a Trump state who has been weighing a gubernatorial tally aft her information to beryllium U.S. ambassador to nan United Nations was pulled earlier this year. Stefanik said coming she’d denote her plans aft this fall’s elections.

Michigan: Republican Rep. Bill Huizenga besides announced coming he would not tally for nan Senate, averting a superior conflict pinch erstwhile Rep. Mike Rogers successful nan plaything state.

Huizenga said he made nan determination “in consultation pinch President Trump.” But notably, he did not opportunity whether he’d tally for different word successful his southwest Michigan district, which nan Cook Political Report pinch Amy Walter rates arsenic “likely Republican.”

Still, nan announcement is invited news for Rogers and nan Senate GOP leaders who are supporting him arsenic he seeks nan spot Democratic Sen. Gary Peters is vacating. Trump has not yet endorsed a campaigner successful nan race, though he is expected to backmost Rogers soon, 2 Republican sources told NBC News.

Iowa: Earlier this month, GOP Rep. Zach Nunn passed connected a bid for Iowa politician aft speaking pinch Trump. Nunn, whom Trump praised arsenic a “team player,” is alternatively moving again successful his southwest Iowa district, which he won by 4 points past twelvemonth and is expected to beryllium among Democrats’ apical targets adjacent year.

Gov. Kim Reynolds’ determination to not activity re-election could lead to a crowded Republican field. One of Nunn’s colleagues, Rep. Randy Feenstra, who represents a safer district, is exploring a bid.

Looking ahead: Plenty of challenges still await Republican leaders and Trump, who has been steadily rolling retired endorsements passim nan year, arsenic nan midterm representation takes shape. Heading into nan summertime legislature recess, they will activity to guarantee that incumbents successful cardinal states and districts tally for re-election. And they are still searching for candidates successful captious Senate races successful Georgia and North Carolina.

North Carolina: Speaking of nan Tar Heel State, Democrats are poised to people a prized enlistee for nan spot held by retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis. Former Gov. Roy Cooper is set to participate nan race, according to 2 sources acquainted pinch his plans.

The latest section successful Trump’s distraction strategy

President Donald Trump and his Cabinet person been engaged this week declassifying reports and levying a flurry of arguable accusations.

The timing has aroused suspicions of a larger strategy. Case successful point: Today’s quality by nan caput of nationalist intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, successful nan White House briefing room to amplify Trump’s unfounded accusation that erstwhile President Obama committed “treason” to rig nan elections successful 2016 and 2020.

Treason is defined arsenic attempting to overthrow nan authorities by waging warfare against nan state, aliases materially aiding its enemies. Trump is basing his complaint connected a wide discredited 2020 Republican House intelligence study that excluded Democratic committee members, differing from an earlier, bipartisan and unanimous Senate study led by then-Intelligence Committee Chairman Marco Rubio — now, of course, Trump’s caput of authorities and nationalist information adviser.

Still, Gabbard has referred Obama for imaginable criminal prosecution, creating headlines contempt nary denotation of an correction successful nan intelligence assessments aliases wrongdoing. Even if location were, Obama would apt person immunity based connected past year’s Supreme Court’s determination that presidents cannot beryllium prosecuted for offenses while successful office. Plus, Trump’s ain typical charismatic recovered nary logic to record charges aft a three-year investigation.

Also striking was nan abrupt merchandise of concealed files connected Martin Luther King Jr. The files had been nether a court-ordered seal since 1977, but Trump signed an bid successful January to return steps to make them public. On Monday, thousands of pages were released pinch nary beforehand announcement — while King’s family was still reference them, hoping to redact unsubstantiated claims astir MLK’s individual life. Critics said nan White House was resurrecting aged conspiracy theories to distract from nan furor complete Trump’s nonaccomplishment to merchandise nan Epstein files.

Adding to nan cacophony was nan president’s societal media exhumation of a settled conflict complete nan sanction of Washington’s NFL team. Known for almost a period arsenic nan “Redskins,” successful 2022 nan squad was renamed nan “Commanders” to fulfill galore Native American tribes.

But now Trump is threatening to artifact nan team’s return to Washington from nan suburbs if it doesn’t reclaim its aged name. That would beryllium a nonstarter pinch section officials who person to o.k. nan team’s move — and hardly a distraction to diehard D.C. shot fans.

That’s each From nan Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Dylan Ebs.

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