From An Mvp Candidate To An Unknown Quantity: Nfl Second-year Qb Rankings

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

2024 stats: 3,541 yards, 62.5% completion percentage, 20 passing touchdowns, six interceptions, 27th successful EPA/play.

Williams entered nan NFL pinch tremendous hype. He was expected to beryllium a franchise-altering quarterback, a one-man discourtesy who could rotation magic retired of nan mundane. Instead, his rookie play fell flat.

Chicago drafted him No 1 wide and past plopped him into an ill-fitting roster pinch an ill-fitting scheme. To compound things, nan Bears overloaded Williams pinch excessively much, excessively soon and he spent overmuch of nan twelvemonth looking frazzled.

There was plentifulness of blasted to spell around: receivers discontinue connected nan discourtesy (at 1 constituent mid-play), nan violative statement was sadistic and location was nary supporting tally game. By nan midpoint of nan season, nan players’ assemblage connection was truthful mediocre that nan O-line hardly pretended to care erstwhile Williams was crushed.

Still, nan rookie wasn’t blameless. Williams swung betwixt hyper-aggressive and ultra-conservative. The productivity that defined his crippled successful assemblage vanished. Early successful nan season, he bailed from cleanable pockets, hoping to widen plays; later, he stayed glued to nan apical of his drops, arsenic though he was trying to deconstruct pre-draft narratives astir his instinctual style successful real-time. Neither utmost worked.

Williams did show advancement precocious successful nan year, playing pinch amended hit successful a much system set-up, but his accuracy was still erratic. Among starting QBs, only Anthony Richardson was much inaccurate connected unpressured throws from nan pocket.

Enter Ben Johnson. The erstwhile Lions violative coordinator has been nan astir sought-after caput coach for 2 cycles. He rejected aggregate occupation offers earlier yet taking nan Bears gig, betting his profession connected Williams.

It’s not conscionable Johnson, either. For nan 3rd consecutive year, nan Bears person been crowned offseason champs (hang nan banners!). Chicago overhauled their violative line, trading for guards Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson and signing halfway Drew Dalman successful free agency. They added Ozzy Trapilo successful nan 2nd information of nan draft, and he is successful contention to commencement astatine near tackle.

It’s a coagulated haul, but location are caveats. Jackson was a bust successful LA, his profession derailed by injuries. Thuney has been 1 of nan league’s champion guards for a decade, but he turns 33 successful November and he showed signs of ageing past season. Dalman is simply a run-game master who has been exposed successful walk protection. If nan trio click early, they will thief substance Johnson’s rushing attack, nan bedrock of Johnson’s offense, but it could easy spell nan different way.

And location are still adjacent questions astir really Johnson will build a passing crippled to fresh Williams. In Detroit, Johnson built a rhythm-based onslaught astir Jared Goff. That’s not Williams’ earthy game. He is simply a creator, wired to clasp nan shot and widen plays. Finding a equilibrium betwixt Johnson’s systematized attack and Williams’ freewheeling style will beryllium a challenge.

Adjustments should flow successful some directions: Johnson loosening his approach; Williams speeding up his play successful nan pocket. Early training campy reports, though, person not been encouraging. Johnson hasn’t decluttered nan Bears’ offense. He’s added moreover much to nan quarterback’s plate, dumping his full discourtesy connected Williams and asking him to play catch-up. That’s nan aforesaid attack past year’s unit took, and it was a dud.

Johnson was hired to trigger a speedy turnaround for Williams and nan Bears, but nan business whitethorn return a twelvemonth to travel together. Williams remains an electrical talent. Johnson is 1 of nan champion violative architects of his generation. The imaginable highest is simply a Mahomes-Reid-like fusion of ideas. But nan teething issues could beryllium gnarly until nan duo find a middle-ground attack that works.

Confidence meter: 5/10 – Banking connected Johnson.

Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

2024 stats: 3,568 yards, 69% completion percentage, 25 passing touchdowns, 9 interceptions, eighth successful EPA/play

Daniels put together nan finest rookie backmost play successful modern convention history, carrying nan Commanders to an NFC Championship game.

Nothing astir past twelvemonth was a fluke. He cracked everything opposing defenses threw his way, torching nan blitz and shredding analyzable sum rotations. At times, Daniels was a one-man offense, an explosive play waiting to happen, whether done nan aerial aliases connected nan ground. He besides mastered pro-level nuances and refused to make dumb mistakes, finishing nan play pinch 1.7% turnover-worthy play percentage, 2nd only to Lamar Jackson.

The Commanders admit they person thing typical and spent nan offseason trying to fast-track their title timeline. That’s a laudable strategy, but nan particulars are fuzzy. They stake connected family names, acquiring Laremy Tunsil and Deebo Samuel successful offseason trades to springiness Daniels much protection and firepower. But some of nan caller arrivals are astatine iffy stages of their careers: Tunsil didn’t play up to his estimation successful Houston past season; Samuel is simply a unicorn, but injuries person slowed him down. The squad mirrored nan strategy connected defense, bringing successful older vets (Von Miller, Will Harris, Eddie Goldman) to effort to push them complete nan top. Now, Washington person nan oldest roster successful nan NFL contempt having 1 of nan champion young quarterbacks successful nan league.

You tin quibble pinch nan Commanders’ medium-term outlook, but nan roster is stronger this play than last. Tunsil, for each his faults past season, is simply a clear upgrade astatine near tackle. If nan squad tin container disconnected a contract hold for Terry McLaurin, they will person plentifulness of weapons for Daniels to activity with. Even if nan squad regress, we person seen capable from Daniels to cognize he will beryllium a perennial MVP contender.

Confidence meter: 10/10 – we’re gonna request a bigger scale.

Drake Maye, New England Patriots

2024 stats: 2,276 yards, 66.6% completion percentage, 15 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 20th successful EPA/play

Maye was dealt nan roughest manus of immoderate rookie backmost past season. He was dropped connected a barren roster, playing for a caput coach who was successful complete his head.

Given nan circumstances, Maye was outstanding. There were flashes of nan Justin Herbert-esque backmost he could be: An efficient, downfield bomber who tin move nan chains pinch his legs, truthful agelong arsenic he kicks his addiction to fumbles. The aboveground numbers were fine. But nan under-the-hood figures were much encouraging. He vanished nan twelvemonth 20th successful EPA/play, ranking 3rd among nan rookies and up of much established starters. He besides vanished pinch 2.8% completion percent complete expectation, which sounds mini but put him 11th successful nan league, supra Brock Purdy, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.

This season, nan arrow is pointing up. Mike Vrabel is now nan Pats’ caput coach. Josh McDaniels is backmost calling plays. Professionalism is backmost successful nan building. The beforehand agency invested heavy and smartly to upgrade nan offense, adding Stefon Diggs, rookie receiver Kyle Williams, seasoned linemen Morgan Moses and Garrett Bradbury, and 2 linemen drafted successful nan apical 3 rounds, including near tackle Will Campbell.

Even pinch nan additions, nan Patriots’ violative statement lacks acquisition and difference-makers. But it’s successful a stronger spot than erstwhile Maye walked into nan huddle a twelvemonth ago. The receiver room is besides improved, moving 8 deep, pinch caller draught picks Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker improbable to make nan regular play roster.

With those improvements astir him, Maye is nan astir apt backmost to return nan Year Two leap.

Confidence meter: 7/10 – yet moving pinch immoderate pros.

Michael Penix had immoderate promising performances successful constricted playing clip successful 2024. Photograph: Brett Davis/USA Today Sports

Michael Penix Jr, Atlanta Falcons

2024 stats: 775 yards, 58.1% completion percentage, 3 passing touchdowns, 3 interceptions

The sample size is tiny. But successful 3 starts, Penix justified past offseason’s contentious investment. Atlanta drafted Penix No 8 overall, 3 months aft signing Kirk Cousins successful free agency to a three-year, $180m afloat guaranteed deal. At nan time, double-dipping connected quarterbacks felt foolish. And fixed that Cousins arrived successful Atlanta afloat cooked, it still feels foolish. But pinch Cousins’ diminution and a so-so draught intake, picking up a backmost pinch Penix’s imaginable has proven to beryllium a savvy move.

Watching Cousins past twelvemonth was miserable. He couldn’t move. His throws had nary juice. Strip disconnected nan nameplate, and nan Falcons had a backmost struggling to run a functional NFL offense. Atlanta’s OC, Zac Robinson, was forced to scrap elements of his discourtesy to effort to hide Cousins’ beingness shortcomings. It took only 1 thrust for Penix to show nan committedness of Atlanta’s offense. Unlike Cousins, Penix has a accelerated merchandise and a hose for an arm. He instantly allowed nan Falcons to grow nan playbook and showed immoderate seasoned trade successful nan pocket. He navigated muddy pockets, extended plays erstwhile he could and manipulated defenders pinch his eyes, spraying nan shot to each levels of nan field.

For each nan positives, Penix’s accuracy remains a concern. He posted 1 of nan highest uncatchable walk rates of nan play (34.4%) successful Week 17, a lingering rumor from his days successful college. But location was capable upside to capable fans pinch assurance that he tin be, astatine worst, a league-average starter – and that unsocial would beryllium an betterment for nan Falcons.

Atlanta’s discourtesy is oozing pinch potential. Drake London is an All-Pro-caliber receiver. With Kyle Pitts, Casey Washington and Ray-Ray McCloud, they person a bully formed of supplementary pass-catchers. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier are 1 of nan champion backfield tandems successful nan league. The violative statement is solid, if unspectacular. The ceiling of nan group will travel down to Penix’s development.

Confidence meter: 6/10 – who doesn’t emotion a rocket-armed lefty?

JJ McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings

2024 stats: N/A

McCarthy is this season’s enigma box. He missed his full rookie play pinch a knee wounded and stood connected nan sidelines arsenic Sam Darnold rejuvenated his career, showing what’s imaginable successful Kevin O’Connell’s offense.

This year’s Vikings roster is deeper and much talented than nan group that won 14 games past season, putting McCarthy successful an perfect spot for a first-year starter. The violative statement is improved, he has a game-breaker astatine receiver, a top-10 tight end, a decent rushing attack, an violative guru for a caput coach and a hellacious defense that should supply plentifulness of short fields.

Pushing heavy into nan playoffs should beryllium nan anticipation successful Minnesota; nan roster is excessively loaded, nan coaching unit excessively bully to miss this opportunity. But that’s a ton of unit to laic astatine nan doorway of a backmost who is efficaciously a rookie.

If he does thing other but limit turnovers, McCarthy should aviator nan Vikings to double-digit wins. If he tin beryllium to beryllium much of a playmaker, which he showed successful bursts astatine Michigan, he tin elevate nan discourtesy beyond what Darnold produced past season.

Confidence meter: 5/10 – excessively galore unknowns.

Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

2024 stats: 3,775 yards, 66.3% completion percentage, 29 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 19th successful EPA/play

Last year, Nix and Sean Payton silenced nan bozos (this writer included) who rolled their eyes astatine Denver drafting him successful nan first round. Anyone doubting Nix astatine this constituent is apt holding connected to priors. Is he arsenic physically talented arsenic Williams, Daniels, aliases Maye? No. But entering his 2nd season, Nix has checked disconnected much boxes than each but Daniels.

As a rookie, Nix was efficient, meticulous and decisive. He was fortunate to beryllium playing down 1 of nan league’s champion violative lines, but he quickly mastered Payton’s richly layered discourtesy and took advantage of his environment.

Early on, nan Broncos sheltered Nix. That made sense. Even arsenic an older rookie – he entered nan convention arsenic a 24-year-old – Nix’s consciousness successful nan pouch was off, and he struggled to rev up to nan velocity of nan league. But by nan midseason, Payton had ripped nan training wheels off, and Nix demolished immoderate pre-draft notions astir his game. He started manipulating defenses alternatively than reacting to them. He challenged nan mediate of nan field. He ripped heaters into tight coverage. Over nan 2nd half of nan season, Nix vanished sixth successful adjusted completion percent connected throws of 20 yards aliases more, outpacing Herbert, Jackson and Joe Burrow. He trim down connected antagonistic plays, posting nan champion rookie pressure-to-sack complaint astatine 13% (elite quarterbacks typically hover astir 10%).

Pre-draft, Nix was billed arsenic a strategy quarterback, 1 who would trust connected making quick, decisive reads, accuracy and not turning nan shot over. Those traits still specify his game. But he showed successful nan 2nd half of his rookie twelvemonth that he is much than a cog successful Payton’s machine.

If Nix tin build connected his rookie campaign, nan Broncos will person morganatic title aspirations.

Confidence meter: 8/10 – Nix tin anchor a franchise.